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Planning
Committee
05 November
2020
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Additional
Waitematā Harbour Connections Business Case
File No.: CP2020/14074
Te take mō te
pūrongo
Purpose of the report
1. To
report the findings and recommended next steps of the Additional Waitematā
Harbour Connections business case.
Whakarāpopototanga matua
Executive summary
2. Auckland
Council staff have been working in partnership with staff from Waka Kotahi NZ
Transport Agency and Auckland Transport on the Additional Waitematā
Harbour Connections business case to understand the case for
improved transport connections between the North Shore and Auckland isthmus.
3. This nationally significant corridor faces several key problems now
and into the future. These are:
· current and future growth is placing
increasing pressure on the corridor leading to reduced access, travel
choice and the efficient movement of goods and services
· access
in the corridor is highly dependent on a single route
with several vulnerabilities.
4. The business case focuses on ‘programme level’ issues
and conclusions – outlining a series of high-level interventions to be
progressed further:
· further investigate the potential for land-use
planning and demand management (e.g. road pricing) to optimise existing
infrastructure and delay the need for major investment
· urgently
upgrade the Northern Busway to increase its capacity, reliability and overall
service quality
· develop an
additional rapid transit connection for the North Shore (including across the Waitematā
Harbour to the city centre), that supplements and integrates with the upgraded
busway and the wider public transport network to provide high quality access to
opportunities and travel choice
· improve roading connectivity in the corridor in a way that
addresses resilience issues in the corridor (including
the Auckland Harbour Bridge).
5. Work on this business case has confirmed the urgent need to enhance
the existing busway, which is now being progressed through a detailed business
case by Auckland Transport. The scale, complexity and multiple
interdependencies of the indicative rapid transit and road improvements
identified means that more detailed analysis is required before their exact
form, function and timing can be confirmed.
6. Development
of the busway improvements detailed business case has been approved by the Waka
Kotahi NZ Transport Agency and Auckland Transport boards.
7. In
addition to the busway improvements business case underway, the next stage of
work is a Strategic Transport Networks single-stage business
case looking in more detail at the rapid transit connection and how it will
integrate with any new or upgraded road connection. Public engagement will
occur as part of this phase of work.
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Ngā tūtohunga
Recommendation/s
That the Planning Committee:
a) note
the findings and next steps of the Additional Waitematā Harbour
Connections business case
b) support Auckland Council’s ongoing
involvement in the project, including strategic input and urban planning
advice
c) note
that the potential scale of the impact and investment for the programme calls
for a combined Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency/Auckland Council/Auckland
Transport governance level structure, and that the problem statements, objectives
and performance outcomes must be agreed by the partners before any further
work is commenced.
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Horopaki
Context
8. In 2018 the Minister of Transport asked Waka Kotahi NZ Transport
Agency (Waka Kotahi) to provide advice on the “need,
timing, form and function of any new cross harbour connections”.
9. Auckland
Council staff have been working in partnership with staff from Waka Kotahi and
Auckland Transport (AT) on the Additional Waitematā Harbour Connections
business case (the business case) assessing future cross-harbour strategic
transport needs. The findings and
recommendations of the business case have been reported to, and endorsed by,
the boards of Waka Kotahi and AT.
10. The business case report is being finalised and
will be released by Waka Kotahi in early November.
Previous work
11. The need for
improved connectivity between the North Shore and the Auckland isthmus has been
anticipated for several decades and many studies have looked into possible
options. The business case has built on this previous work and undertook
updated investigations with the most recent demands and policy expectations.
12. Specifically,
this business case responds to direction in the 2018 Auckland Transport
Alignment Project (ATAP), which outlined the “urgent need”
to “confirm the rapid transit corridor’s future mode and alignment,
including how it integrates with a potential future road crossing”. ATAP
also noted “the need to provide more certainty about the optimal timing,
modal mix, configuration and operation” of any future crossing.
13. While there
have been several previous studies into improved connections across the
Waitematā Harbour, these studies have largely focused on options analysis,
rather than defining the problem to be solved or outlining a case for
investment. This business case is also the first investigation to take a fully
mode neutral approach that is consistent with business case principles and
considers the wider transport system at the same time.
Project scope and purpose
14. The purpose of the business case is to understand the case for
improved transport connections between the North Shore and Auckland isthmus.
The business case is focused on the strategic transport corridor made up of
State Highway 1 and the Northern Busway (the corridor), and in particular the
key section across the harbour. However, it is recognised that changes made in
this corridor have implications across the wider transport system. For this
reason the project has retained a broad view, with the study area (figure 1)
covering the entire North Shore and stretching from Orewa to south of the
Central Motorway Junction.
Figure 1: Business case study area
Current context
15. Auckland
is home to around 1.7 million people of which around 337,000 live on the North
Shore.
16. The
Auckland Harbour Bridge (the harbour bridge), is the most travelled route in
New Zealand, carrying on average around 171,000 vehicles per day in 2018
(around 205,000 people assuming an occupancy of 1.2 people per vehicle) and
around 30,000 public transport trips per day.
17. Coastal
areas are significant taonga (treasure) to Māori; spiritually and
functionally. This area also contains a number of sites of
significance/importance to Mana Whenua identified within or near the corridor.
This includes; Wai Kōkota and Te Tō - Victoria Park, Te Onewa (Stokes
Point) pa, Te Rōutu o Ureia – Pt Erin, Motungaengae (Watchman
Island) and Te Kō pua a Matakamo kamo – Tuff Crater.
18. This part of the Waitematā Harbour is a highly valued and sensitive
environment and much of the coastal marine area within the project area is
classified under the Auckland Unitary Plan as a Significant Ecological Area
– Marine.
Tātaritanga me ngā
tohutohu
Analysis and advice
The problems to be addressed
19. This
nationally significant corridor faces several key problems now and into the
future. The key issues are:
· population and employment growth are leading to an increased demand
for travel, which will increasingly exceed the existing network’s
capacity. As capacity is reached and exceeded across more modes of transport
and across more of the day, there will be significant detrimental effects on
access, travel choice and the efficient movement of goods and services
· the
very high and growing dependency on the corridor, particularly for
cross-harbour travel, means that its vulnerabilities have increasingly
significant impacts on Auckland and New Zealand if service
levels are compromised. While the harbour bridge is in good condition, it is an
ageing structure with growing maintenance needs and will require increasing
traffic management restrictions to protect its ongoing structural integrity.
20. The business case summarises these issues in the
following three problem statements (relative weightings
from the business case are shown in brackets):
1) Increasing
difficulties serving the growing travel demand along the corridor is worsening
travel choice and reducing connectivity between people and places (55%)
2) Inefficiencies
and unreliability in the movement of goods and services will drive up costs and
delays and impede access to markets and customers (15%)
3) Reliance
on a constrained and vulnerable Auckland Harbour Bridge and corridor risks the
provision of resilient and reliable transport and utilities services (30%).
21. As can be seen, addressing growing travel demand is the key focus of
the business case. The need to deal with ‘freak’ catastrophic
accidents on the harbour bridge through improved resilience was noted by
the business case, but the substantial cost of providing such resilience through the provision of
alternative roading capacity meant that the expected benefit of eliminating the
risk of such accidents was viewed as being relatively low.
Business case findings
22. The business case focuses on ‘programme level’ issues
and conclusions – outlining the following high-level series of
interventions to be progressed further.
Integrated
planning and demand management
23. The
business case found that the timing and scale of growth on the North Shore is a
key driver of the timing of investment. There is an important link between the
timing of greenfield urbanisation around Dairy Flat on the North Shore and the
need for high-cost rapid transit and road investment. Focused growth around
major centres (especially Takapuna and Albany) and of employment on the North
Shore could help reduce pressure for travel across the harbour.
24. Road pricing, if applied, could help reduce congestion on the
corridor, likely delaying the need for road investment. However, it will
increase public transport demand and potentially bring forward the need for
rapid transit upgrades. Legislative change would be required before any road
pricing scheme could be introduced.
Busway
upgrade
25. The
analysis confirmed the need to progressively enhance the Northern Busway to
meet the growth in demand, until a supplementary higher capacity Rapid Transit
Network intervention can be delivered. The inability to meet future public
transport demand to, from, and within the North Shore would constrain
Auckland’s economic performance and inhibit planned urban growth.
26. It
was identified that this was needed urgently and as such AT have already
commenced work on a detailed business case for busway enhancements that is expected
to be completed by the end of the year. The outcomes of this and the extent to
which the busway enhancement ultimately boosts public transport capacity will
impact the timing and nature of subsequent investments.
Additional
rapid transit connection
27. The
analysis has determined that, even with enhancements, an upgraded busway will
not have sufficient capacity to meet medium-long term public transport demand.
After considering a wide range of options, the preferred approach is to provide
an additional rail-based rapid transit connection across the harbour.
28. The
business case identifies that the additional rapid transit connection should
directly serve Takapuna and Smales Farm from the north and south, as well as
integrate with the busway and the wider public transport network. North of
Smales Farm the business case identifies that further work is required to be
done to determine the route of the rail connection, whether or not it replaces
the current busway and how it interfaces with long-term route protection work
and growth planning north of Albany.
29. The
business case is does not determine the specific timing of this investment as
this is dependent on a range of factors, including population growth, the
introduction of road pricing and the success and longevity of the busway
enhancements. Nevertheless, an additional rail-based connection is likely to be
needed around the mid to late 2030’s. The planning, design and
construction timeframes for a project of this scale are likely to be around 15 years.
30. The
business case does not identify a specific mode for this connection. Finalising
the mode of this new rapid transit connection (i.e. light-rail, light-metro or
heavy rail) will be done through a regionwide network planning process because
of significant interdependencies with other rapid transit corridors/projects
such as City Centre to Mangere and North-West Rapid Transit.
31. These short and longer term interventions will significantly improve
access and transport choice for many people who will have access to an improved
public transport network. It will significantly increase transport capacity
across the Waitematā Harbour and enable many more people to avoid the
impacts of congestion. It will also improve the resilience of the transport
network by providing an alternative mode and physical link to the road-based
bridge connection and provide an alternative crossing for other infrastructure
providers.
Improved
road connectivity
32. The
rapid transit connection will not however fully address all the problems and
investment objectives identified by the project. Traffic congestion on the
existing harbour bridge is forecast to remain, increasingly stretching into
interpeak hours, and the harbour bridge will remain the primary road
connection, leaving the network exposed in the case of a catastrophic event or
when the bridge needs to undergo structural upgrading or maintenance (an
increasingly likely situation over time).
33. The
business case therefore still considers there is reason to progress with
investigating a new or upgraded road connection.
34. Modelling
undertaken for the project comes to similar findings as previous work has; that
constructing additional lanes across the Waitematā Harbour will not eliminate congestion and only minimally improve
travel times, due to the saturation of the overall road network. Increasing
traffic volumes across the harbour would also likely feed more traffic into the
city centre and along local roads (running counter to project and Auckland Plan
objectives). If traffic capacity is limited on these links (such as through
reductions in traffic capacity into the city centre), it would appear
counterintuitive to invest in additional capacity and then deliberately
restrict it. These matters will need to be addressed in the next phase of work.
35. Taking
into account these factors above, and considering the significant size of the
investment likely required, the business case recommended that the other
options (busway enhancement, applying road pricing, and the provision of a new
rail connection) be considered first before the construction of an additional
road connection.
36. The timing of the need for the new or upgraded road connection is
even more unsure than the rapid transit connection, as it in turn relies to
some degree on the form, function and timing of that connection. Nevertheless,
the business case does not identify a need for the road connection before the
mid to late 2040’s.
37. Figure
2 below shows the indicative timing proposed for the three main physical
interventions.
Figure 2: Indicative timing proposed for three main
physical interventions
Costs
38. The
business case identifies the capital cost range of the recommended programme as
being approximately $6-18 billion, anticipated to be incurred between 2024 to
2047. This consists of the following high-level
estimates[1]:
· Busway
enhancements: $0.5-0.6 billion for bus improvements
· Rail-based
connections:
o $5 billion for a tunnel from the
city centre to Takapuna and Smales Farm;
o $3 billion to extend this from
Smales Farm to Albany (noting these are nominal examples of networks for
estimation purposes only)
· Road
connection:
o $1-2 billion for an in-line road
bridge expanding the capacity of the existing bridge; or
o $10 billion for a road tunnel
from the city centre to Esmonde Road and additional motorway lanes to
Constellation Drive.
39. Once
completed, the cost range of the programme’s operations and maintenance
would be approximately $100-130 million annually, mostly for management of
tunnel operations.
Tauākī whakaaweawe
āhuarangi
Climate impact statement
40. This
business case, which sits at a programme level and does not commit the
government or Auckland Council to any course of action, or confirm funding,
does not directly impact on council’s climate response.
41. Nevertheless,
the findings of the business case and its recommendations will inform future
decisions which may do so. The implications of these future decisions could
include:
· Transport
emissions: Modelling undertaken for the business case suggests that once
constructed, a rapid transit connection would reduce transport emissions, while
an improved road connection would increase them.
· Growth
and land use change: Changes to growth and land use patterns as a response
to transport investment (whether purposefully as a change to land use zoning
and/or by the market reacting to particular investment) are likely to impact on
levels of emissions. Rapid transit investment is likely to support
a more compact urban form focused in the existing urban area and around
centres, which in turn is likely to generate fewer emissions. Investment in
improved motorways on the other hand is likely to support less dense, higher
polluting, greenfields growth.
· The construction of the connection/s:
The general construction process contributes to greenhouse gas emissions
through the production and transport of materials and the site work and construction
process itself. Given the large scale of the works required, the construction
of any connection across the Waitematā Harbour is likely to generate
significant climate emissions.
· Improved
resilience to weather events: Some sections of the corridor are
particularly exposed to adverse weather events, which may become unpredictable
and extreme as a result of climate change. Upgrades to
the corridor can help reduce this exposure and improve resilience, such as
through the raising of the northern approach to the Harbour Bridge which is
presently subject to coastal inundation from storm events and sea level rise.
Ngā whakaaweawe me
ngā tirohanga a te rōpū Kaunihera
Council group impacts and views
42. AT have been
involved in the preparation of the business case as a joint partner with Waka
Kotahi. The outcomes and recommendations of the business case were endorsed by
the AT Board in late October. The AT Board have already approved the
commencement of work on the detailed business case for the
busway enhancements.
43. Given the programme level of the business case, the involvement of
Auckland Council staff has been largely limited to members of the Auckland Plan
Strategy and Research department. Other parts of Auckland Council, including
Plans and Places, the Development Programme Office and Panuku will be involved
in the next, more detailed, stage of the project as appropriate.
Ngā whakaaweawe
ā-rohe me ngā tirohanga a te poari ā-rohe
Local impacts and local board views
44. There has
been no formal involvement of local boards to date due to the high-level,
programme level nature of the business case. However, stakeholder engagement,
which will include local boards, is proposed as part of the Strategic
Transport Networks business case to help inform the more detailed and
concrete decisions around the route and form of any connection/s. A focus of this engagement will be on ensuring
local boards and their communities are given opportunities to fully engage in
the next phase of the project through its development.
45. As the first
step of this engagement, specific briefing sessions are being set up for the
coming weeks with the most directly affected local boards. Recognising the
regional impact of this project, a memo will also be sent to all other local
boards summarising the outcomes of the business case and offering to provide a
similar briefing.
Tauākī whakaaweawe
Māori
Māori impact statement
46. Engagement
with Māori has to date been at a high level, commensurate with the
programme level of the business case. It is expected that mana whenua will be
substantially more involved in the next phases of work.
47. During this
business case phase of work, mana whenua iwi have been updated via Waka Kotahi’s
Iwi Integration Group (IIG) forum and were consulted as part of the
multi-criteria analysis process to gain insights during the development of the
business case. Waka Kotahi have met to discuss the high-level
outcomes of the business case with the IIG. A meeting to present to the mana
whenua governance group had to be cancelled and is in the process of being
rescheduled.
48. Waka Kotahi
will continue to lead iwi engagement on the project and are developing a
Māori/mana whenua engagement strategy as part of the next planning and
consultation phases. To inform the project’s development, iwi will have
the opportunity to provide Cultural Value Assessments for different parts of
the corridor.
49. Ongoing iwi
involvement in the project will likely include (but not be limited to)
inputting into the design and delivery phases and advising as to how the
project can maximise benefits for Māori well-being.
50. As noted
previously, coastal areas are significant taonga for Māori, and the area
within and near the corridor contains many sites of high importance and value
to mana whenua. Recognition and respect for this will be a key part of the
next, more detailed, stages of work and will be helped by the involvement of
iwi as described above.
Ngā ritenga
ā-pūtea
Financial implications
51. No funds are
being sought as part of this report. Auckland Council staff
time spent on the project will be covered within existing departmental budgets.
52. Funding for
the next phases of work, being the Strategic Transport
Networks business case and the implementation of any busway
enhancements, will be considered by AT and Waka Kotahi as part
of their forthcoming (respective) Regional Land Transport Plan (RLTP)
and National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) planning and approval
processes.
53. In the
long-term, the funding of either or both of the more substantial connections
would have significant financial implications, being equivalent to 30-50% of
the current RLTP programme. The
ongoing development of ATAP will guide the likely investment levels and timing,
in conjunction with other regional projects.
Ngā raru tūpono me
ngā whakamaurutanga
Risks and mitigations
54. There are no
risks with the committee being updated on the business case.
55. However, there are a range of significant
financial, reputational and timing (i.e. risk of delay in project delivery)
risks associated with future stages of this work should it proceed to
construction. Most of these are due to the scale of the project which would be
the largest and most expensive in New Zealand’s history.
56. A risk register is included in the business
case. A similar register will form part of any future work and continue to
develop as the project progresses.
57. For Auckland Council a few of the main risks
are:
· Financial – As noted previously the construction of the respective
proposed business case interventions are substantial. Funding for the next
stage of the project has been identified and will need to be confirmed through
the forthcoming RLTP and NLTP processes. The costs and subsequent funding of
further stages for the design and implementation of the project(s) would need
to be determined at that time. As a project of national significance, it is
expected that most, if not all, of the future stages of the project would be
funded by central government; however, this is not guaranteed.
· Misalignment
with council development strategies – Two of the main examples of
this are:
o No, or delayed, crossing
– Auckland Council plans have long identified the need for an additional
harbour crossing, in one form or another, to support growth on the North Shore.
As identified by the business case, this growth and increasing demand for
travel will result in reduced access and travel choice as networks become
congested and unreliable, potentially limiting the growth which can occur.
o Different crossing alignment –
Previous growth and land use planning has tended to assume any new rapid
transit connection would run along the existing busway. Should this change and
a new rapid transit connection follow a different alignment then changes would
be required to Auckland Council’s growth and land use plans. This will be
considered within the next phases of work.
58. Auckland
Council staff will continue to be a part of the collaborative partnership
working on the next phases of the project. This will enable the Council to be
involved in the delivery of the project and monitor its progress.
59. Given the
potential scale of the impact and investment of the overall programme, it is
critical that future stages include a combined Waka Kotahi/Auckland Council/AT
governance level structure. Additionally, to ensure strategic alignment as part
of the next steps of the programme, problem statements, objectives and
performance outcomes must be agreed by the partners before any further work is
commenced. This should sit at an elected member / Waka Kotahi and AT Board
level. This will help ensure that outcomes of importance to Auckland Council,
such as active modes and climate change, are appropriately recognised.
60. Because of
the importance of this partnership and governance approach it is recommended
that they are noted by the committee in its resolution. The implementation of
the approach in the next phases of the project should help mitigate these and
other risks to Auckland Council.
Ngā koringa ā-muri
Next steps
61. The
next phases of the project are:
1) Ongoing delivery of
busway enhancements following completion of the Enhanced Busway Improvements
detailed business case.
2) Development of a Strategic
Transport Networks single-stage business case covering:
a) The
rapid transit connection – including form, alignment and timing.
b) Strategic
transport networks (road and rapid transit) – looking at the wider
transit network on the North Shore as well as how the road connection will
integrate with the rapid transit connection. This phase will also consider
whether the connections should be constructed together or separately
(temporally and/or spatially).
c) Route
protection based on the outcomes of a) and b).
62. This
is illustrated in the diagram in Attachment A.
63. Work is also underway as part of ATAP on the development of rapid
transit planning guidance to help inform long-term rapid transit planning
decisions, such as those required in the Strategic Transport Networks business
case. This work includes staff of Auckland Council, AT and Waka Kotahi.
64. Public engagement will occur as part of the Strategic
Transport Networks business case.
Ngā tāpirihanga
Attachments
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No.
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Title
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Page
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AWHC recommended next phases
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Ngā kaihaina
Signatories
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Author
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Alastair Cribbens - Principal Transport Advisor
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Authorisers
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Jacques Victor – General Manager Auckland
Plan Strategy and Research
Megan Tyler - Chief of Strategy
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